Nomogram predicts survival benefit from preoperative radiotherapy for non-metastatic breast cancer: A SEER-based study

Abstract

Background: To estimate survival in non-metastatic breast cancer patients who failed to achieve a pathological complete response (pCR) more effectively, we combined the clinicpathological characteristics after preoperative radiation therapy (pRT) and established a novel nomogram.

Materials and Methods: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, we identified 2,545 non-metastatic breast cancer patients who underwent pRT between 1998 and 2013. Based on the registries of patients, the primary cohort divided into training set (n = 1,692) and validation set (n = 853). Nomograms were established by training set and validated by validation set.

Results: According to the multivariate analysis of training set, nomogram which combined age at diagnosed, marital status, location, grade, ER status, yp-T status, yp-N status and whether received breast conservation surgery (BCS) was developed. Calibration plots of the nomograms showed that the probability of DSS corresponded to actual observation closely. The C-index was 0.78 in validation set, which was significantly higher than that of yp-TNM staging system (0.75, p = 0.004).

Conclusions: The proposed nomogram resulted in more–reliable DSS prediction for non-metastatic breast cancer patients in general population, it would be helpful in individualized survival prediction and better treatment allocation after pRT.