A new classification of lymph node metastases according to the lymph node stations for predicting prognosis in surgical patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Abstract

Lymph node metastasis (LNM) is one of the major prognostic factors for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). However there is no consensus regarding the prognostic significance of the location of LNM. Therefore, a novel classification was proposed to identify the lymph node (LN) stations which may be useful in predicting prognosis. A total of 260 ESCC patients were enrolled in this prospective study. The prognostic values of LNM in different lymph node (LN) stations were evaluated by random survival forests (RSF). Their prognostic significance was examined by Cox regression and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). The three most frequently involved LN stations were station 16 (24.49%), station 1 (22.22%) and station 2 (21.05%). Stations 1, 2, 8M, 8L and 16 were grouped as dominant LN stations (DLNS) which showed higher values in predicting overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) than the remaining LN stations, which we define as non-dominant LN stations (N-DLNS). LNM features of DLNS (number of positive LN stations, number of positive LNs and LN ratio), but not those from N-DLNS, served as independent prognostic factors (P<0.05) whenever used alone or when combined with factors from N-DLNS. Furthermore, the area under ROC indicated that DLNS is a more accurate prediction than N-DLNS (P<0.05). This study demonstrated the value of LNM in DLNS in predicting prognosis in surgical ESCC patients, which outperformed those from N-DLNS. Therefore, the method of dominant and non-dominant classification may serve as an additional parameter to improve individualized therapeutic strategies.